ENGINEERING FOR DEVELOPMENT
(First Draft)
E J Jefferies
March 1969
CONTENTS
PART 1 THE WORLD DEVELOPMENT PROGRAMME
Chapter
1 Introduction
Chapter
2 Closing the Gap
Chapter
3 Resistance to Change
Chapter
4 International Technical Assistance
PART II AN ENGINEERING APPROACH TO A PLAN FOR A COUNTRY
Chapter
5 Outline of the Approach
Chapter
6 Setting the Problem
Chapter
7 Basic, Concepts, Terms and Definitions
Chapter
8 Background Data Available
Chapter
9 The Starting Point for a Case Study
Chapter
10 Preliminary Calculations
Chapter
11 Patterns of Economic Growth
Chapter
12 Development Plan for Year 1
Chapter
13 Development Plan for Year 2
Chapter
14 Development Plan for Year 3
Chapter
15 Review of Changes During the Three Years
Chapter
16 The Control of Development
Chapter
17 Financing the Development
PART III THE
IMPLICATIONS OF RAPID GROWTH
Chapter
18 Economic Growth and Technological Changes in Rural Communities
Chapter
19 The Influence of Agriculture on Industrial Development
Chapter
20 The Role of Manufacturing Industry
Chapter
21 The Contribution of Industrial Engineering to a Solution
PART IV DESIGNING FOR BALANCE IN DEVELOPMENT
Chapter
22 The Prediction of New Manufacturing Capacity Requirements by
Product Group
Chapter
23 The Productivity of Labour
Chapter
24 The Growth of Productivity
Chapter
25 The Calculation of Appropriate Levels of Productivity in New
Plants
CHAPTER 19
THE INFLUENCE OF AGRICULTURE
ON INDUSTRIAL DEVELOPMENT
Productivity in Agriculture
If there is any significant plantation sector of agriculture, this may show a fairly high level of productivity of labour. (At the same time its productivity of capital may be rather low.)
Otherwise, in a country where agriculture accounts for 35% to 60% of the economic activity, productivity of labour in most of the operations of agriculture will be in the lower ranges of a graph on the lines of Graph 5. If data on employment and sectoral output is available, the average productivity of labour in agriculture can be calculated from the mean productivity of the country. For instance, if agriculture employs 77% of the work force and produces 45% of the GDP then the average productivity of labour in agriculture is 45/77 or 0.585 times the country mean. If agriculture depends on irrigation and water storage, productivity of capital will be very low.
Reduction of Agricultural Labour Force
Since agriculture of average to low productivity forms the bulk of the economic activity and uses the bulk of the labour force, increased labour productivity here (output being held constant) will release labour for other uses and will produce unemployment. Such increased labour productivity in agriculture is the only route to an ultimate higher level of the economy, but can only be effective if the released labour can be absorbed elsewhere. Industrialisation is looked to provide this. However, if the industries set up for this purpose operate at say ten times the labour productivity of agriculture, they can only make one-tenth of their required contribution to the absorption of the labour released, and the majority becomes unemployed. The answer to this dilemma cannot be to multiply by ten the scale and output of these new industries, since at the ruling level of the economy purchasing power is not yet available for the larger amount of products. Hence, productivity in the new industries must be rigidly held down if unemployment is not to become a major problem. Thus, new industrial plants need to be designed to an appropriate level of productivity as well as to a target level of product cost and profitability.
It is of interest to note that in Great Britain in the 1950s agricultural output was increasing by about 3% per annum and employment in agriculture and falling by about 3% per annum. Productivity in agriculture was increasing at about twice the rate achieved by industry.
It many underdeveloped countries at the present time agricultural output is not keeping pace with population increase. An increase in productivity of labour in agriculture is urgently needed to provide increased output and initially this need not involve any displacement of labour since the increased output can be absorbed. There are cases observable where efforts are now being made to increase the agricultural labour force to correct under-production, but if economic development is the aim, this can only be a very temporary measure.